Overview
- Jerome Powell said Fed staff estimate official monthly payroll gains may be overstated by roughly 60,000, implying an average loss of about 20,000 jobs since April rather than reported gains of 40,000.
- He attributed the gap largely to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ use of a model to estimate employment at newly formed and closed firms, a process that has led to later downward revisions in recent years.
- The warning came as policymakers cut interest rates for a third straight meeting, with unemployment reported at 4.4 percent.
- The BLS faces staffing and budget strains, lower survey response rates, and recent shutdown-related delays, and it has pledged methodological changes beginning in February.
- Private payroll data from ADP showed an estimated loss of nearly 32,000 jobs in November, while political scrutiny intensified after President Trump fired the BLS commissioner and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly pushed back on weak figures.