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Powell Defends Fed Independence, Stresses Data-Driven Caution on Rates

Markets now look to GDP and core PCE readings to steer expectations for the next policy step.

Overview

  • In Providence, Jerome Powell said the Fed "never, jamais" considers political consequences in its decisions, pushing back after months of pressure from President Donald Trump for faster cuts.
  • Powell described a difficult balance between still-elevated inflation and signs of labor-market weakness, warning there is no risk-free path.
  • Treasury yields dipped following his remarks, with the 10-year falling to roughly 4.11% as investors recalibrated the outlook.
  • Policy views diverged across the Fed: Governor Michelle Bowman called for decisive cuts to aid a weakening jobs market, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged caution, and Director Stephen Miran said policy remains too tight.
  • Powell said decisions will weigh multiple scenarios and current data, while longer-run economic outcomes rest more with Congress and the private sector than with the central bank.