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Poverty Rebounds in Late 2025 as Basic Baskets Rise Faster Than Prices

UTDT nowcasts roughly 32.5% for the fourth quarter, reflecting December basket increases of 4.1% at the national level.

Overview

  • INDEC set December’s poverty basket for a four‑person household at $1,308,713 and the food basket at $589,510, with both up 4.1% month over month.
  • UTDT’s monthly estimate places poverty at 28.7% in the third quarter and 32.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, interrupting the earlier decline.
  • UTDT’s Martín Rozada attributes the reversal to baskets rising faster than overall inflation since October and to lower fourth‑quarter incomes in the EPH due to the absence of the aguinaldo.
  • Jujuy’s Dipec reported December increases of 3.7% for the food basket and 3.2% for the total basket, with a four‑member household needing $1,204,925 to avoid poverty.
  • Food prices were a key driver in 2025, climbing about 32.2% against a 31.5% general CPI, and INDEC’s official poverty reading for the second half of 2025 is due in March.