Overview
- The National Hurricane Center upgraded a northern Gulf disturbance to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five on Monday and began formal advisories with Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast.
- The NHC gives the system roughly a 70–80% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within 48 hours and through seven days, meaning it could be named Edouard before or at landfall.
- Forecasts show the system moving slowly west-northwest toward the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast and expected to arrive Tuesday or Tuesday night, with the exact landfall location still uncertain.
- Forecasters emphasize the main hazards are locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding and tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, and NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has highlighted an elevated flash-flood risk for parts of Southeast Texas.
- Separately, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have a very low near-term chance of redevelopment but are increasing tropical moisture and raising heavy-rain and dangerous-surf risks for South Florida this week.