Overview

• Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's Democratic Alliance (AD) is polling at 34%, leading over the Socialist Party (PS) at 26%, but still far from a parliamentary majority.
• The far-right Chega party remains the third-largest force with 19% support but is excluded from coalition talks due to its divisive rhetoric.
• Economic concerns, including U.S. tariffs impacting exports and a worsening housing crisis, have received limited attention during the campaign.
• Voter fatigue is rising, with many Portuguese disillusioned by repeated elections and the lack of stable governance since 2023.
• The AD's potential coalition with the Liberal Initiative, polling at 7%, would still fall short of a majority, raising the likelihood of another fragile minority government.