Overview
- Polymarket said the mission to capture Nicolás Maduro did not meet its market’s definition of an invasion, which requires a U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory.
- An anonymous account that wagered roughly $32,000–$34,000 on Maduro’s removal saw unrealized gains of about $400,000–$430,000 vanish when the invasion market’s odds collapsed after the ruling.
- Traders accused the platform of narrowing terms after the fact and raised questions about possible insider access given the timing of newly created accounts and large pre-raid bets.
- More than $10.5 million has been staked this year on Venezuela-related contracts, and Polymarket has since listed new markets on potential U.S. action in countries such as Colombia and Cuba.
- Rival platform Kalshi emphasized its prohibition on insider trading and bars government employees from relevant markets, as Polymarket faces renewed scrutiny following past FBI attention and recent CFTC authorization.