Overview
- Polymarket ruled that only U.S. military action intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory would count, excluding the capture-and-extract mission.
- Traders accused the platform of narrowing terms after the fact, with forum posts blasting an arbitrary decision that wiped out expected winnings.
- Newly created anonymous accounts placed wagers of roughly $32,000–$34,000 on Venezuela outcomes and saw paper gains of about $400,000 before the ruling reversed them.
- Rival prediction market Kalshi highlighted its prohibition on insider trading and restrictions on government employees participating in related markets.
- Despite the dispute, Polymarket added contracts on potential U.S. action in countries such as Colombia and Cuba, as Venezuela-related markets drew about $10.5 million in wagers this year.