Overview
- The platform ruled the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores a capture-and-extraction, citing a contract definition that requires an offensive to establish territorial control.
- More than $10.5 million was wagered on whether the United States would invade Venezuela, and bettors are challenging the decision as arbitrary and applied after the fact.
- U.S. lawmakers are pressing for tighter oversight of prediction markets, including proposals to bar public officials from trading, while the CFTC declined to comment.
- Questions about market integrity have intensified after outsized, well-timed wins, including a Nobel Peace Prize odds surge that prompted a Swedish Academy probe.
- Scrutiny of political links has grown as Donald Trump Jr.’s firm took a stake in Polymarket and he joined its advisory board, while unverified online speculation has sought ties between winning accounts and people close to the president.