Overview
- Polymarket traders assign an 80% probability to Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end 2026, with odds stepping down to 45% for $120,000, 35% for $130,000, 28% for $140,000, and 21% for $150,000.
- Forecasts from firms including Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and Strategy call for $150,000 in 2026, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projects a potential range of $200,000 to $250,000.
- Caution on prediction markets is tied to doubts about the once-reliable four-year cycle after Bitcoin ended 2025 lower, weakening confidence in historical patterns.
- Expectations that President Trump will appoint a new Federal Reserve chair have fueled bets on rate cuts that could aid risk assets, with gold and silver already notching record highs.
- Proposed U.S. legislation — the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act — is cited as a possible source of regulatory clarity that could encourage more institutional participation.