Overview
- Polymarket contracts currently imply about a 69% chance that Google will release Gemini 3 on November 22, a date the company has not confirmed.
- Sundar Pichai responded to the speculation with two thinking‑face emojis on X, offering no further details.
- Historian Mark Humphries describes near‑perfect handwritten text recognition and step‑by‑step symbolic reasoning from an unreleased Google model accessed via AI Studio, a claim that remains unverified.
- Google has confirmed that Google Finance will surface data from prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.
- Polymarket recently raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange at roughly a $9 billion valuation, as research highlights that automated‑market‑maker prices can be shifted by large trades or influential signals.