Overview
- Prediction-market pricing for a 2025 release climbed from roughly 4–5% to about 12–13%, reflecting heightened speculation following President Trump’s pardon of Changpeng Zhao.
- A separate Polymarket market on possible 2025 pardons shows Bankman-Fried’s share slipping to 7% from 9% even as overall interest increased.
- Bankman-Fried’s official X account retweeted a Polymarket post about his potential release, prompting sharp pushback from crypto commentators including Coffeezilla.
- He is serving a 25-year sentence after convictions on seven fraud and conspiracy counts, with an appeal hearing scheduled for Nov. 4 that is not expected to yield a swift outcome.
- Legal analysts note that Zhao admitted to compliance failures, whereas Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud, a distinction many cite in doubting the likelihood of clemency.