Overview
- The United States carried out a large-scale strike in Venezuela and announced President Nicolás Maduro’s capture and removal, with the news posted by President Donald Trump hours after the operation.
- A newly created Polymarket account wagered roughly $32,000–$34,000 on Maduro being out by January 31 and redeemed about $409,000–$436,760 within hours of the announcement, according to platform data reported by multiple outlets.
- Trading activity on Maduro-related contracts surged late Friday, with pricing climbing shortly before 10 p.m. ET and the “Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?” market spiking around 4:20 a.m. ET ahead of the public confirmation.
- Blockchain analysts at Lookonchain reported that three recently created wallets focused on Venezuela-related contracts netted a combined profit of about $630,000, a developing claim that has intensified scrutiny of possible insider use of nonpublic information.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres says he will introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to bar federal officials from trading on contracts tied to government actions when they possess material nonpublic information, as an updated DOJ indictment naming Maduro and Cilia Flores on narcotics-related charges set the legal backdrop a day earlier.