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Polymarket Bets Before Iran Ceasefire Spur Congressional Calls for Investigations

Lawmakers seek probes into possible use of nonpublic information on crypto betting markets.

Government supporters gather to mark the 40th day since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
FILE - The Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen, Jan. 11, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Wyatte Grantham-Philips, File)
Iranian pro-government demonstrators chant slogans in a gathering after announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war with the United States and Israel, at the Enqelab-e-Eslami, or Islamic Revolution, Square, in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, April 8, 2026.
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Overview

  • Analysts found at least 50 brand-new Polymarket wallets that bought “Yes” on an April 7 truce Tuesday, minutes to hours before President Trump announced it, with some accounts clearing hundreds of thousands of dollars.
  • Polymarket later marked the April 7 ceasefire market as “disputed,” citing continued fighting and Strait of Hormuz limits, and said a final review is due by Friday evening.
  • In a Thursday letter, Rep. Ritchie Torres urged the CFTC to investigate the well-timed wagers, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal pressed Polymarket to detail how it prevents insider trading and war-related betting.
  • The White House warned staff in late March not to use inside knowledge to trade after reports of a burst of oil futures activity minutes before a public Iran policy shift.
  • On-chain firm Bubblemaps said a linked wallet cluster won about $600,000 on the ceasefire and roughly $1.2 million on earlier Iran-war bets, though proxy wallets and offshore access make it hard to tie trades to specific people.