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yesterday

Polymarket Bet on Maduro’s Ouster Prompts Insider-Trading Scrutiny and Congressional Action

A mystery trader’s $32,000 wager that ballooned to about $436,000 has spurred a bill to bar officials from using prediction markets when they hold material nonpublic information.

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People try to remove their belongings from their homes in an apartment building in the Soublette neighborhood that, according to residents, was damaged during U.S. military operations a day after the capture of Nicolas Maduro by US forces on Jan. 4, 2026 in La Guaira, Venezuela.
Nicolas Maduro was arrested in Trump's surprise Venezuela operation.
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Overview

  • Polymarket data show odds of Nicolás Maduro leaving power jumped hours before President Trump announced his capture, when the account placed its largest late bets.
  • The account, created in December, took four Venezuela-focused positions totaling roughly $32,537 and realized more than $436,000 once the market resolved.
  • A Chainalysis spokesperson said the bettor already cashed out winnings in Solana through a major U.S. exchange with no signs of obfuscation, suggesting investigators could trace the funds.
  • Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to prohibit government employees from trading on nonpublic information and to explicitly criminalize such conduct on prediction platforms.
  • Polymarket did not immediately comment as legal experts flagged potential Commodity Exchange Act issues, and the episode renews scrutiny even after the platform reported CFTC approval to operate as a U.S. exchange in late 2025.