Overview
- The latest YouGov survey conducted 21–22 December shows Reform UK down three points to 25%, its lowest level in more than six months, with Labour at 20% and the Conservatives at 19%.
- Professor Sir John Curtice notes Reform has slipped roughly a point a month since a September peak near 32%, suggesting its long-running lead is now under threat.
- Other recent surveys diverge, with Deltapoll reporting Reform around 30% and an Ashcroft-commissioned poll placing it at 25% with the Conservatives on 22% and Labour on 18%.
- Reform faces reputational damage from racism and antisemitism allegations relating to Nigel Farage’s school years, a row over remarks by Hampshire mayoral candidate Chris Parry, and the conviction of ex-Wales leader Nathan Gill for Russia-linked bribes.
- Nigel Farage has lost two MPs this year and faced calls to oust party figures, while unions warn the party’s spending-cut and deportation plans risk job losses ahead of the 2026 electoral tests.