Overview

• Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta describes a close NDA–Mahagathbandhan contest and calls Nitish Kumar the state’s only common denominator after two decades in power.
• Gupta says the BJP’s principal electoral face in Bihar is Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reflecting the party’s reliance on his national brand.
• He notes the Muslim–Yadav vote arithmetic at roughly 31–32 percent, which he says helps sustain the RJD’s organisational strength.
• Gupta argues the NDA gains from including the LJP (Ram Vilas), adding that if it had been aligned last time the NDA could have reached about 138 seats.
• The Election Commission has not announced dates, with a Patna visit expected in early October, a final electoral roll due September 30, and voting likely in November before the assembly term ends November 22.