Overview
- Multiple late polls, including a Christopher Newport University survey, put Abigail Spanberger up by about seven points over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
- Spanberger has centered her bid on lowering costs and economic relief, while voters rate inflation, health care and threats to democracy as top concerns.
- The contest is widely framed as a referendum on the shutdown and federal workforce cuts, which carry outsized weight in a state with more than 300,000 federal employees.
- Earle-Sears’ attacks tying Spanberger to attorney general candidate Jay Jones’ texting scandal and to transgender student policies show little evidence of changing the race.
- Spanberger holds a large spending advantage and notable endorsements, including from the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, and a win could aid Democrats’ constitutional amendment plans and make her the state’s first woman governor.