Overview
- Early October Gallup polling found U.S. public confidence in the honesty of elections nearly split at 49% to 51% and showed a sharp partisan gap with 63% of Democrats but just 37% of Republicans expressing confidence.
- A Reuters/Ipsos survey completed Oct. 5 reported a large enthusiasm gap with 48% of 2024 Harris voters saying they are very enthusiastic to vote compared with 30% of 2024 Trump voters, a gap that could lower Republican turnout.
- Pew Research and Reuters/Ipsos polls in early October put President Trump’s approval near 30–32%, driven by concerns about the economy and the Iran conflict, and those falling ratings correlate with weaker GOP standing in national ballot measures.
- Republican internal polls circulated in late September showed unexpectedly close or vulnerable margins in formerly safe red House districts while analysts and pollsters flagged concrete methodological problems such as recalled-vote undercounting and nonresponse that can understate GOP support.
- The picture remains uncertain because voter-registration gains for Republicans in some battleground states and past midterm polling misses suggest public national leads may not translate directly into wins at the state level, making turnout and state-level races the key things to watch.