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Polls Show Dead Heat Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot Blocs

A neck‑and‑neck race hands decisive power to small parties, raises urgent questions about a disputed Haaretz report on pre‑Oct. 7 warnings, risks to opposition figures, the role of overseas voters.

Overview

  • Recent polls published this week project roughly equal Knesset seat totals for Benjamin Netanyahu’s right‑wing coalition and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar‑led opposition, leaving neither side certain of reaching the 61‑seat majority needed to form a government.
  • Because Israel uses nationwide proportional representation with a 3.25% cutoff, a few marginal lists or the fate of Arab and single‑issue parties could swing which bloc controls the Knesset.
  • Haaretz published a contested account that the UAE president warned Netanyahu of a planned Hamas attack before October 7, 2023, and Netanyahu’s office has denied the story and threatened legal action, adding a new layer to accountability debates.
  • Campaign security is a live issue after reporting that Eisenkot has faced threats and has not received full protection from the state security service, prompting concern about political violence and the safety of opposition figures.
  • Organized expatriate voting efforts and recent emigration have become campaign variables, with activists arranging special flights to bring voters back and authorities reportedly weighing steps to limit chartered flights before the election.