Overview
- A large Kyodo phone survey conducted as official campaigning began projects the LDP–Japan Innovation Party bloc to clear the 233-seat majority threshold in the Feb. 8 vote, with roughly one in five voters still undecided.
- A Yomiuri poll finds 69% support for Takaichi’s cabinet and indicates the LDP could make significant proportional-representation gains, potentially near its 2021 tally, with advances even in Aichi and Hokkaido.
- The Centrist Reform Alliance, newly formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, is leading in only a small share of key races and could finish below their previous combined seats as support coalescence lags.
- The LDP is fielding candidates in 285 of 289 single-seat districts versus 202 for the CRA, setting up about 200 direct duels, while LDP–JIP overlaps in 85 districts and a broad JCP slate risk splitting both pro- and anti-government votes.
- Smaller parties are expanding their footprint, with Sanseito running up to 190 candidates and poised for proportional gains and Team Mirai projected for seats, as youth turnout uncertainty and winter conditions add volatility.