Overview
- A Survation survey for the Caerphilly by-election reports Reform UK on 42 percent, Plaid Cymru on 38 percent and Labour on 12 percent, indicating a two-way contest.
- A Wales-wide Beaufort Research poll shows Reform leading on 30 percent, ahead of Labour on 23 percent and Plaid Cymru on 22 percent.
- Nation.Cymru’s seat projection using Cavendish software translates current polling into Reform as the largest Senedd party with 37 of 96 seats, short of a governing majority.
- Losing Caerphilly would leave Labour on 29 Senedd seats, increasing reliance on opposition support to pass legislation under First Minister Eluned Morgan.
- Nigel Farage has campaigned in Caerphilly, and tactical voting advocates are urging anti-Reform voters to back Plaid Cymru in the contest.