Overview

• A 40dB poll for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER places Vox at 17.4%—its best since 2023—while the PP falls to 30.7% and its lead over the PSOE tightens to three points.
• An NC Report survey for La Razón estimates the PP at 35.2% and Vox at 15.4%, projecting 202–206 seats for both parties together, above the threshold for an absolute majority.
• Analyses of recent surveys attribute the right’s advantage to increased abstention among left‑of‑centre voters and vote transfers from the PSOE to the PP.
• Issue salience is shifting, with 40dB finding 76.3% say access to housing has worsened in two years and the CIS identifying immigration as the country’s third most important problem.
• Strategy remains open, as Alberto Núñez Feijóo reiterates a preference for governing alone and Vox sources signal reluctance to enter a government at this stage.