Overview
- An average of recent polls projects PP at about 31 seats, PSOE at 18, and Vox at 11, leaving PP roughly three short of an absolute majority.
- Pilar Alegría has ramped up a Moncloa-style precampaign with heavy social media activity, which party sources say has not reversed her polling slide.
- Local PSOE unease with the national line persists, with Javier Lambán’s past criticism cited as context for potential internal fallout if results worsen.
- Jorge Azcón advanced the election to avoid a budget impasse and seek a more stable majority, counting on an atomized map where smaller parties can be decisive.
- Analysts and party figures highlight Vox’s sustained rise and the normalization of its vote as key uncertainties that raise the stakes of Azcón’s gamble.