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Polls Put Florida’s Amendment 3 Well Below 60% Needed to Pass

The shortfall raises the odds that local governments will face large revenue losses that could force cuts or shifts of costs onto renters.

Overview

  • A St. Pete Polls survey published Sept. 23 found about 45% of likely Florida voters support Amendment 3, far below the 60% approval required to add the change to the state constitution.
  • The amendment would raise the homestead exemption for non‑school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 and index it for inflation after that, while lowering the annual assessment growth cap for non‑homestead property.
  • Independent and state analyses project the measure could cut roughly $11–12 billion in local and state revenue once fully phased in, prompting counties such as Seminole to model shortfalls and specific program cuts.
  • Tax‑policy modeling from Jared Walczak and the Florida Housing Coalition estimates that if local tax rates rise to replace lost revenue average annual property‑tax bills could increase about $406 per apartment unit and $1,081 per single‑family rental by 2028, costs likely passed to renters over time.
  • The fight is intensifying ahead of the Nov. 3 vote with Florida Realtors putting $10 million into the pro‑Amendment campaign and gubernatorial backing on one side and sheriffs, police and firefighter groups publicly warning of cuts to public safety on the other side.