Overview
- Nate Silver’s polling aggregation through Oct. 4 shows Democrats leading nationwide congressional vote intention by about 51% to 41%, a roughly 10-point advantage.
- CNN/SSRS state polls reported Oct. 8 show Democrat Sherrod Brown about six points ahead of Republican Jon Husted in Ohio among likely voters.
- The same CNN/SSRS polling finds the Iowa Senate race essentially even, with Republican Ashley Hinson at 45% and Democrat Josh Turek at 43% and a large share of undecided voters.
- Voters in both states say rising costs and Trump-era policies have hurt their finances, making the economy the top issue shaping late-deciding and motivated voters.
- Democrats still must defend vulnerable seats and flip roughly four Republican Senate seats to win a majority, with Ohio and North Carolina among the most promising pickup opportunities and close races likely to decide control.