Overview
- Newspoll (Sept 8–11) puts the Coalition’s primary vote at 27%—its worst since 1985—with Labor on 36%, a 58–42 two-party-preferred lead, One Nation at 10% and the Greens at 13%.
- Resolve (Sept 9–13) also has the Coalition at 27% and Labor at 35%, with One Nation hitting a record 12% and minor parties and independents at a combined 38%, yielding a 55–45 Labor edge by respondent preferences.
- Leader ratings diverge across surveys: Newspoll records Sussan Ley at net -17 with Albanese leading 51–31 as better prime minister, while Resolve keeps Ley at +9 with Albanese ahead 38–26.
- Pollster assessments link One Nation’s gains to the immigration debate, as the opposition navigates fallout from Jacinta Nampijinpa Price’s demotion and a subsequent frontbench reshuffle.
- Senior Nationals figure Barnaby Joyce publicly pressed for strategic shifts, and Labor strengthened its position in NSW by winning the Kiama byelection 59.2–40.8% two-party-preferred.