Overview
- National surveys released in mid‑September show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 44% to 37%, the largest gap since January 2025.
- Forecast models from FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver currently give Democrats about an 86% chance to win the House and roughly a 57% chance to win the Senate.
- A CBS News poll found a majority of likely Democratic voters say their main reason to vote is to stop President Trump and Republican policies rather than to back Democratic initiatives.
- Public dissatisfaction with the economy has grown after the Iran war pushed gasoline and consumer prices higher, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll found most voters oppose Mr. Trump's $5,000 dividend pledge.
- New York Times polling experts and other analysts have shifted toward expecting Democratic control of the House and view Senate pickup chances as improved while noting late turnout shifts and state-level contests could still change the outcome.