Overview
- President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to -15 from -10 pre-shutdown, marking his lowest rating of the second term, according to Enten’s read of recent polling.
- Democrats now hold about a +5 advantage on the generic congressional ballot, with a Marquette poll showing a +9 margin among likely voters.
- Enten concluded Democrats politically “won” the shutdown and said the data points to weakened Republican odds of maintaining congressional control in 2026.
- The shutdown ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 and ended with a stopgap that excluded an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits.
- The White House is expected to outline a plan to extend health-care subsidies with eligibility limits before a Senate vote next month, and prediction market Kalshi currently pegs the chance of an extension this year at about 56%.