Overview
- The Kantar/Kan poll aired Sunday projects the anti‑Netanyahu opposition at 56 Knesset seats and Netanyahu’s coalition at 53, with Likud at about 24 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at about 23.
- Two newly launched center‑right lists led by Tropper‑Hendel and Erdan‑Edelstein fail to cross the electoral threshold in the survey, removing an expected source of seats for the right‑of‑center blocs.
- Pollsters note the survey interviewed 551 respondents and has a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points, so small sample variation could flip a few projected seats.
- Analysts, including Amit Segal, say a shift of roughly 10,000 votes nationwide could change which bloc can form a government because Israel’s proportional system awards seats on narrow vote margins.
- A hypothetical reunion of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad would boost combined Arab mandates in the poll and, in one scenario, reduce Netanyahu’s bloc to about 52 seats, underscoring how Arab‑list choices could be decisive.