Overview
- An Odoxa‑Mascaret poll (fieldwork Nov. 19–20; n=1,300) finds Bardella at 35–36% in the first round and winning the second round against Édouard Philippe 53–47, Gabriel Attal 56–44, Raphaël Glucksmann 58–42, and Jean‑Luc Mélenchon 74–26.
- First‑round testing places Philippe at 17% if he leads the centrist bloc and Attal at 11% in an alternate scenario, with Glucksmann around 14.5% and Mélenchon about 12%.
- The results mark a reversal from April, when Odoxa measured Philippe defeating Bardella 54–46 in a hypothetical runoff.
- Marine Le Pen was not tested because Odoxa treated her as ineligible pending appeal in the EU assistants case, even as RN figures publicly insist she remains their 2027 standard‑bearer for now.
- Odoxa stresses high uncertainty with roughly a third of respondents not expressing a preference and notes the figures are a momentary snapshot within a 1.5–3.5 point margin of error, not a forecast, as debate continues over the centrist contender and the erosion of the traditional cordon sanitaire.