Overview
- A Question Mark/El Heraldo poll published Monday shows PAN leading Morena 35% to 29% in voting intention across Aguascalientes.
- When voters were asked to choose between PAN senator Toño Martín del Campo and Morena senator Nora Ruvalcaba, the poll found a near tie with Toño at 37.8% and Nora at 35.5%.
- The survey was based on 600 effective interviews, has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points at 95% confidence, and recorded about 12% of respondents as undecided or refusing to answer.
- Toño Martín del Campo responded to the numbers by urging caution and attributing Morena's advance in part to federal social programs, while opinion writers urged opposition leaders to reconsider PAN‑PRI alliance strategies.
- Because Aguascalientes has long been a PAN bastion, the poll’s narrow margins mean party coalitions, internal candidate rules, and shifting undecided voters could change the race before formal campaigns begin.