Overview
- The People’s Pulse tracker, conducted November 15 to December 31, projects the BJP at 69–74 seats with the NDA’s tally expected to approach 90 in the 126-member Assembly.
- Chief ministerial preference is closely contested with Himanta Biswa Sarma at 30%, Sarbananda Sonowal at 28% and Gaurav Gogoi at 27%.
- Estimated vote share stands at about 39% for the BJP versus 37% for the Congress, with researchers noting that alliance dynamics and delimitation could amplify the seat gap.
- Congress’s public plan to contest more than 100 seats has unsettled potential partners, and opposition seat-sharing talks remain unresolved.
- Within the NDA, the AGP says it aims to field candidates in at least one constituency per district as discussions continue, and the chief minister has urged formal decisions by AGP president Atul Bora and BJP state president Dilip Saikia.