Overview
- A Cluster17 survey for POLITICO conducted November 4–7 shows Benoît Payan and RN candidate Franck Allisio level at roughly 29% each in first‑round voting intentions.
- The poll’s registered‑voter subsample counts 816 respondents with an estimated margin of error between about 1.5 and 3.5 points.
- Modeled runoffs indicate a comfortable Payan lead near 45% if the left unites, with the RN at 30% and Martine Vassal at 25%.
- If LFI keeps its own slate, the projection tightens to 30.5% for Payan versus 29% for Allisio in a four‑way second round, signaling a photo‑finish race.
- Sébastien Delogu of LFI is measured around 16% in the first round, above the 10% threshold to qualify, while a separate Ifop poll commissioned by Vassal’s group instead has her leading and reporting also highlights Stéphane Ravier’s endorsement of Allisio and legal inquiries involving Allisio and Vassal.