Overview
- A Texas Southern University/Barbara Jordan Center survey conducted Dec. 9–11 shows Crockett ahead of James Talarico 51% to 43% among likely Democratic primary voters, with strong support from Black voters and women and a notable name-recognition advantage.
- Reporting indicates the NRSC promoted polling and pushed pro-Crockett narratives over the summer to elevate her profile, a move Crockett has dismissed as a political feint.
- Several House Democrats told Axios they fear Crockett could win the primary but lose statewide and complicate key House races, though some progressives argue she can win and praise her messaging.
- Statewide polling averages still favor top Republicans in hypothetical matchups, with John Cornyn up about 6 points, Wesley Hunt up 5, and Ken Paxton up 2 against Crockett; Talarico fares similarly or slightly differently depending on the opponent.
- The Democratic primary is March 3, 2026, with a possible May runoff, as Republicans publicly welcome Crockett’s entry — Speaker Mike Johnson said he is “absolutely delighted” — and James Carville criticizes her rollout as focused too much on herself.