Overview

• A Genial/Quaest survey conducted Sept. 12–14 finds 41% opposed to an amnesty, 36% favoring a general pardon that includes Bolsonaro, 10% backing amnesty only for 8 January participants, and 13% undecided (2,004 interviews; ±2 p.p.).
• The Chamber is expected to vote on urgency for an amnesty bill today, but leaders now question whether the opposition can reach the 257 votes required to fast-track the measure.
• The government is working to block urgency by pressuring appointee-backed deputies and offering extra budget amendments, while Speaker Hugo Motta has signaled discomfort with a move likely to provoke a clash with the Supreme Court.
• Bolsonarist allies insist on an “ampla, geral e irrestrita” amnesty, as others float a narrower version focused on reducing sentences; Senate President Davi Alcolumbre favors revising penalties rather than a full pardon.
• Lula discussed the proposal with STF ministers Edson Fachin and Alexandre de Moraes, with the plan characterized as an affront and flagged as potentially unconstitutional, and Quaest’s Felipe Nunes says there is no public climate for pardoning Bolsonaro.