Overview
- Operational analyses report a recent shift in Arctic circulation, with Meteored and meteorologists on X expecting the polar vortex to intensify in late September and stay active into the final quarter of 2025.
- Forecasters say the setup could increase the number of cold fronts reaching Mexico from late September or early October, leading to cooler, autumn-like conditions rather than severe winter cold.
- Mexico is not directly under the vortex, but its influence tends to be strongest in northern states, where colder spells, frost and occasional high-elevation snow are more likely, while other regions may see temperature drops and rain tied to fronts.
- The National Weather Service of Mexico (SMN) projects roughly 48 to 50 cold fronts in the 2025–26 season, fewer than the historical average, with the deepest cold expected in December through February.
- NOAA explains the polar vortex as a high-altitude low-pressure system and recommends staying informed, dressing for the cold and keeping a basic winter kit with items such as blankets, food, water, a first-aid kit and flashlights.