Overview

• Centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and Eurosceptic Karol Nawrocki are locked at 47% each in the latest Ipsos poll, highlighting the race's razor-thin margin.
• Both candidates are vying for support from far-right voters after Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun collectively secured over 21% in the first round.
• Trzaskowski, aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European Civic Coalition, has rejected far-right policy demands while emphasizing NATO and EU ties.
• Nawrocki, backed by the populist Law and Justice party, has endorsed far-right conditions, including opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership and new taxes.
• The runoff outcome will determine whether Tusk's reform agenda advances or if opposition forces retain influence through the presidency's veto power.