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Poland’s Presidential Runoff Concludes Too Close to Call

Polling within the margin of error sets up a Monday decision that will chart Poland's path toward deeper EU integration or nationalist conservatism.

This combination of photos shows Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Friday, May 9, 2025, and Karol Nawrocki, right, in Warsaw, Poland, Tuesday, May 20, 2025 (AP Photos/Czarek Sokolowski, File)
A combination picture shows two leading candidates in the Polish presidential election, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, Civic Coalition presidential candidate, smiling during a visit to the Weglewski farm, ahead of the second round of Polish presidential election, in Buczek, May 29, 2025, and Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, reacting during his final rally, ahead of the second round of presidential election, in Biala Podlaska, Poland, May 30, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel
A man rides a bicycle past presidential campaign posters for liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski on Friday May 30, 2025, in Dziekanow Lesny , near Warsaw Poland. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Overview

  • Voters wrapped up a razor-thin runoff on June 1 with Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki tied in polls and final results expected Monday morning.
  • Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition, has campaigned on deepening ties with Brussels and restoring judicial independence.
  • Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the Law and Justice Party and supported by Donald Trump figures, proposes a eurosceptic agenda and closer alignment with the United States.
  • Both candidates endorse higher defence spending and continued support for Ukraine’s war effort but differ on ratifying Kyiv’s future NATO membership.
  • The incoming president will wield veto power over legislation, shaping whether Tusk’s centrist government can pass its reform agenda.