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Poland’s Presidential Race Heads to Runoff as Trzaskowski Leads Nawrocki

Neither frontrunner secured a majority in the first round of voting, setting up a decisive runoff on June 1 that will shape Poland’s political future.

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Overview

  • Rafał Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s liberal mayor, secured approximately 31% of the vote, ahead of ultraconservative Karol Nawrocki’s 26%, but neither reached the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
  • The June 1 runoff will determine whether Poland’s pro-EU Civic Coalition government can overcome legislative gridlock caused by presidential vetoes under Andrzej Duda’s PiS-aligned presidency.
  • Outgoing President Andrzej Duda has vetoed 74 legislative initiatives since 2023, blocking key reforms on judiciary independence, social policies, and EU relations.
  • Trzaskowski’s platform emphasizes increased military spending, EU engagement, and social liberalization, while Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership and aligns with nationalist policies.
  • The libertarian Konfederacja candidate Slawomir Mentzen, polling third with 11%, was eliminated, leaving his supporters’ preferences as a potential swing factor in the runoff.