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Poland's Presidential Election Heads to Likely Run-Off as EU and Nationalist Agendas Clash

Early voting results show Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki leading but falling short of the 50% threshold, setting up a decisive June 1 contest.

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Voter cast their ballots polling stations opened in the first round of Poland's presidential elections in Warsaw, on Sunday, May 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)
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Overview

  • Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European Warsaw mayor, and Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian backed by the Law and Justice party, are the leading candidates in Poland's presidential election.
  • Neither candidate is expected to surpass the 50% threshold required to win outright, making a June 1 run-off almost certain.
  • The election is pivotal for Poland’s foreign policy, judicial reforms, and social rights, with contrasting visions of EU alignment and conservative nationalism on the ballot.
  • Nawrocki’s campaign has faced scrutiny over allegations of misconduct in a housing deal and his endorsement by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • The presidency, though largely ceremonial, holds veto power and significant influence over foreign policy, making the outcome critical for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition.