Overview

• Opinion polls ahead of the June 1 run-off show Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki separated by less than one percentage point
• Viktor Orbán and US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have publicly backed the PiS-supported nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki
• Trzaskowski, backed by the liberal-conservative Bürgerplattform, campaigns on a pro-European integration platform while Nawrocki promises tougher migration controls
• The Polish presidency holds veto power over laws, appoints the prime minister and serves as commander-in-chief, giving the winner significant influence over domestic and foreign policy
• Analysts warn a Nawrocki victory could put Poland’s robust support for Ukraine and its NATO commitments under review