Overview

• The May 18, 2025, presidential election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk can advance his stalled reform agenda or face continued vetoes from the presidency.
• Rafał Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s pro-European mayor, is leading in opinion polls and is expected to face Karol Nawrocki, the PiS-aligned candidate, in a likely runoff.
• Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, ineligible for re-election, has used his veto power to block judicial reforms and social legislation central to Tusk’s platform.
• A Trzaskowski victory would align the presidency with the government, potentially unblocking EU funds and enabling liberal reforms on abortion and civil partnerships.
• If Nawrocki wins, the presidency is expected to remain a veto barrier to Tusk’s policies until the next parliamentary election in 2027.