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Poland Prepares for Decisive Presidential Election Amid Tight Race

Pro-European Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist Karol Nawrocki vie for leadership as demonstrations in Warsaw highlight deep societal divisions.

Le candidat à la présidentielle, Rafal Trzaskowski (c, arrière-plan), maire pro-UE de Varsovie et membre de la Coalition civique, s'adresse à ses partisans lors d'un rassemblement de campagne à Varsovie, le 25 mai 2025, une semaine avant le deuxième tour des élections
Rafal Trzaskowski, le maire de Varsovie, candidat pro-européen à la présidentielle polonaise, lors d'un meeting à Sandomierz, à l'issue du premier tour le 18 mai (Photo by Beata Zawrzel / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Overview

  • The second round of Poland's presidential election takes place on May 26, 2025, with polls indicating a dead heat between Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, both at 46.3%.
  • Massive rival demonstrations were held in Warsaw on May 25, 2025, drawing approximately 500,000 supporters for Trzaskowski and 200,000 for Nawrocki.
  • Trzaskowski advocates for closer EU integration and continued support for Ukraine, while Nawrocki opposes Ukraine's NATO membership and prioritizes nationalist policies.
  • The election's outcome could significantly influence Poland's stance on European geopolitics, including its relationship with Ukraine and its role in the EU.
  • A victory for Nawrocki, a supporter of Donald Trump, may complicate the current government led by pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk.