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yesterday

Poland Heads to Neck-and-Neck Presidential Runoff on June 1

The vote will tip Poland’s European alignment by determining its capacity to enact judicial reforms.

This combination of photos shows Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Friday, May 9, 2025, and Karol Nawrocki, right, in Warsaw, Poland, Tuesday, May 20, 2025 (AP Photos/Czarek Sokolowski, File)
The liberal presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, front center, waves as he and supporters of take part in a march one week ahead of a decisive presidential election in Warsaw, Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)
Conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, right, waves as he takes part in a march one week ahead of a decisive election in Warsaw Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)
This combination of photos shows Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Poland, on March 14, 2022 and Karol Nawrocki in Szeligi near Warsaw, Poland, on March 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski, File)

Overview

  • Opinion polls published this week put liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and nationalist Karol Nawrocki locked in a virtual tie at roughly 46–47 percent each, with nearly 8 percent of voters undecided ahead of Sunday’s runoff.
  • Trzaskowski has framed the election as a choice for deeper EU integration, promising to restore judicial independence, liberalize abortion laws and back civil unions for same-sex couples.
  • Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party and endorsed by U.S. conservative figures, emphasizes traditional values, pledging to veto social-liberal bills and oppose Ukraine’s NATO membership.
  • Both contenders have courted far-right supporters by responding to Slawomir Mentzen’s eight-point platform on taxes, migration limits and NATO expansion, with Nawrocki signing Mentzen’s terms and Trzaskowski engaging in but not endorsing them.
  • The winner will replace President Andrzej Duda and wield veto power over legislation, shaping Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ability to push through reforms on rule of law and EU-aligned policies.