Overview
- The PoderData/Aya survey published May 29 shows Lula with 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 35% in a stimulated first‑round test and Lula 46% to Flávio 42% in a hypothetical second round, margins inside or at the poll’s ±2‑point error.
- The poll was based on 2,400 phone interviews conducted May 25–28 across 651 municipalities, is registered with the TSE (BR‑04882/2026), and uses a 95% confidence interval and ±2‑point margin of error.
- Results show sharp demographic splits with Lula stronger among women, voters aged 16–24, the Northeast and lower‑income or less‑educated voters, while Flávio leads in the South and among middle‑income voters.
- Analysts say the numbers reflect a rebound for Flávio after the Vorcaro episode, helped by his recent U.S. outreach on crime policy, while Lula’s legislative victory on ending the 6x1 work schedule likely bolstered support among low‑income workers.
- The poll treats voter intent as a momentary snapshot and shows Lula tied with several other potential challengers in different runoff matchups, underscoring a volatile race four months before the election.