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PMD Rejects ‘Extreme Winter’ Claims, Projects Slightly Warmer Season

The agency bases its outlook on WMO-validated models informed by current ocean–atmosphere signals.

Overview

  • The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s December–February outlook indicates slightly above-normal temperatures with near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall across most regions.
  • Officials report a weak to moderate La Niña that historically dampens the intensity and frequency of winter systems over South and Southwest Asia.
  • PMD says short-lived, localized cold spells may occur from passing western disturbances but finds no evidence for an exceptionally severe or record-breaking winter.
  • Karachi and parts of Sindh are forecast to remain hot and dry through next week with highs near 35–37°C, with a gradual cool-down expected in early to mid-November.
  • The department disputes ISCG/UN OCHA situational warnings about one of the coldest winters in decades and urges the public and media to rely on official forecasts to avoid unnecessary alarm.