Overview
- The Pakistan Meteorological Department issued its seasonal outlook on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, saying most of Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have a high probability of below-normal rainfall while temperatures are likely to run above average.
- PMD links the outlook to a reemergent El Niño and a currently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole that may turn positive by July, a combo that shifts where and how much rain will fall across the country.
- Northern high-elevation zones including Gilgit-Baltistan, northern K-P and Kashmir are forecast to receive near- to above-normal rainfall, which combined with faster snow and glacier melt could raise risks of glacial lake outburst floods, flash floods and landslides.
- The forecast warns that early-season moisture deficits could harm Kharif sowing and early crop growth, increase irrigation demand, and strain reservoir and water management for irrigation and hydropower.
- PMD has urged farmers, water managers and the public to follow advisories because the outlook is probabilistic, regional outcomes may vary, and extra preparations are needed for heatwaves, vector-borne disease risk and travel to mountain areas.