Overview
- A leaked memo from Sam Altman days after Gemini 3.0 warned OpenAI’s revenue growth could slow to about 5% and declared a shift to “wartime,” reflecting mounting competitive pressure.
- Internal forecasts obtained by Reuters indicate OpenAI’s 2025 cash burn will exceed $8 billion with cumulative losses projected to reach $115 billion by 2029, highlighting valuation risk tied to infrastructure costs.
- Google’s scale advantages—roughly 4 billion user services generating proprietary behavior data, custom TPUs, and native product distribution—are cast as structural edges over venture‑backed labs.
- Capital flooded foundational models and infrastructure in 2025, with about $202.3 billion invested in AI, at least $61 billion directed to data centers, and capex plans near $100B at Amazon, $80B at Microsoft, and $75B at Google.
- The cash surge minted more than 50 new AI billionaires and lifted model‑maker valuations such as Anthropic’s, while Meta reorganized under a new superintelligence lab and trimmed metaverse spending to pursue a personal‑AI push.