Overview
- Modeling across 179 countries finds primary agricultural labor needs could fall 5–28% by 2030, equal to 18–106 million fewer full-time jobs, driven largely by reduced livestock production.
- Horticulture would expand to meet higher demand for fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts, requiring an estimated 18–56 million additional full-time workers.
- Global agricultural wage costs could decline by US $290–995 billion per year (about 0.2–0.6% of GDP), with estimates labeled illustrative due to omitted economic feedbacks and post-farm employment.
- Impacts vary widely, with livestock-heavy producers seeing the biggest declines in farm labor, while some lower-income regions may need sizable investment to build horticultural capacity.
- Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, the Oxford Environmental Change Institute study evaluates flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian and vegan scenarios and urges retraining and redeployment to secure a fair transition.