Overview
- The YouGov/ITV Wales poll conducted January 5–12 puts Plaid Cymru on 37%, Reform UK 23%, Greens 13%, with Labour and Conservatives both on 10%.
- Projection estimates for the expanded chamber suggest Plaid 45 seats, Reform 23, Greens 11, Labour 8, Conservatives 6, and Liberal Democrats 3.
- Two independent seat models indicate First Minister Eluned Morgan could fail to be re-elected, underscoring the scale of Labour’s decline to fourth place.
- Party reactions diverged sharply, with Plaid citing momentum for “positive change,” Labour figures conceding a tough outlook, Greens buoyant about gains, and Reform insisting it can close the gap.
- Parallel Westminster voting intention in Wales shows Plaid 29%, Reform 25%, Labour 13%, Conservatives 12% and Greens 12%, with analysts stressing the poll is a snapshot under a new, more proportional system that could shape coalition options.